A new algorithm for recursive estimation of parameters in controlled ARMA processes

Abstract

A recursive algorithm for estimating the constant but unknown parameters of a controlled ARMA process is presented. The algorithm is a recursive version of an off-line algorithm using three stages of standard least-squares. In the first stage the parameters of a controlled AR model of degree p are estimated. The residuals used in this stage are employed in the second stage to estimate the parameters of a controlled ARMA process. The first two stages constitute a recursive version of Durbin's algorithm. The model obtained in the second stage is used to filter the input, output and residuals and these filtered variables are used in the final stage to obtain improved estimates of the controlled ARMA process. It is shown that the estimate is (globally) p-consistent, i.e. that the estimate converges a.s. as the number of data tends to infinity, to a vector which, in turn, converges to the true parameter vector as the degree p of the AR model tends to infinity.