A new accident causation theory based on systems thinking and its systemic accident analysis method of work systems

Abstract

Major accidents such as the Space Shuttle Challenger disaster in the USA, the Bhopal Disaster in India, the Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan, and the Tianjin Port fire and explosion accident in China, have occurred all over the world. Safety scientists are always trying to understand why these accidents happened and how to prevent these accidents. Accident models and theories form the basis for many safety research fields and practices. However, there is no universally accepted model with useful elements relating to understanding accident causation, although many accident causation models exist. A new accident causation theory named the Interaction Theory of Hazard-Target System (ITHTS) is proposed based on Systems-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes (STAMP) and Risk Management Framework (RMF), which not only incorporates human, organisational and technological characteristics in the same framework, but also considers the sociological factors such as legislative, regulatory, and cultural factors. On the other hand, a new systemic accident analysis method of work systems (SAAMWS) is proposed based on ITHTS and STAMP because ITHTS cannot be applied directly in accident analysis. We choose Tianjin Port fire and explosion accident as a case study to demonstrate the explanatory power of Interaction Theory of Hazard-target System and the feasibility of the new accident analysis method. Further research needs to be done to assess the reliability and validity of this new systemic accident analysis method.