A new 500-year reconstruction of Truckee River streamflow

Abstract

The Truckee River Basin, located on the Nevada-California border, is an area of extreme hydrologic variability, being subject to both prolonged multi-decadal droughts and devastating floods; however, due to the brief instrumental record, understanding of the full range of this variability is limited. To assist local water managers assess the post-2000 drought in the context of historic droughts, this study revisits the first tree-ring reconstruction of Truckee River runoff: Hardman and Reil (1936). Incorporating their original 1930s tree cores as well as newly sampled material, three new site chronologies were developed and combined with other regional chronologies to produce a 1491–2003 reconstruction of Truckee River streamflow, an over 400-year extension of the instrumental record and 230 years longer than the previous reconstruction, providing new insights into the basin’s natural variability. In addition to evidence of extended droughts and extreme high streamflow years, this reconstruction shows a marked hydroclimatic shift centered around the 1850s. Prior to then, the Truckee River experienced decadal to multi-decadal periods of higher than average streamflow; subsequently, these periods have been decreasing in length with only two instances above three consecutive years of high streamflow since 1900. Whether this represents fundamental shift to a new hydroclimatic regime remains unclear. However, as global temperatures continue to rise, fewer long-term high streamflow episodes may have lasting impacts on water availability in the basin, raising the question further of whether the post-2000 drought is a new megadrought or a sign of aridification.