A neuro-fuzzy model to predict the inflow to the guardialfiera multipurpose dam (Southern Italy) at medium-long time scales

Abstract

Intelligent computing tools based on fuzzy logic and artificial neural networks have been successfully applied in various problems with superior performances. A new approach of combining these two powerful tools, known as neuro-fuzzy systems, has increasingly attracted scientists in different fields. Few studies have been undertaken to evaluate their performances in hydrologic modeling. Specifically are available rainfall-runoff modeling typically at very short time scales (hourly, daily or event for the real-time forecasting of floods) with in input precipitation and past runoff (i.e. inflow rate) and in few cases models for the prediction of the monthly inflows to a dam using the past inflows as input. This study presents an application of an Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), as a neuro-fuzzy-computational technique, in the forecasting of the inflow to the Guardialfiera multipurpose dam (CB, Italy) at the weekly and monthly time scale. The latter has been performed both directly at monthly scale (monthly input data) and iterating the weekly model. Twenty-nine years of rainfall, temperature, water level in the reservoir and releases to the different uses were available. In all simulations meteorological input data were used and in some cases also the past inflows. The performance of the defined ANFIS models were established by different efficiency and correlation indices. The results at the weekly time scale can be considered good, with a Nash- Sutcliffe efficiency index E = 0.724 in the testing phase. At the monthly time scale, satisfactory results were obtained with the iteration of the weekly model for the prediction of the incoming volume up to 3 weeks ahead (E = 0.574), while the direct simulation of monthly inflows gave barely satisfactory results (E = 0.502). The greatest difficulties encountered in the analysis were related to the reliability of the available data. The results of this study demonstrate the promising potential of ANFIS in the forecasting of the short term inflows to a reservoir and in the simulation of different scenarios for the water resources management in the longer term.