A Neuro-Fuzzy Model for Conflict Prediction in the Niger Delta Region of Nigeria

Abstract

This paper proposes a soft computing system driven by Neural Networks, Fuzzy Logic and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for the prediction of conflict in the Niger Delta (ND) region of Nigeria. Identifying conflicts along the level of severity with which they arise in oil bearing host communities (OBHC) is of primary importance to government and other stakeholders, as the accompanying conflict risks mitigation course administered could be planned based on the level of severity of the conflict situations. The system is implemented using MATLAB and Microsoft Excel running on Microsoft Windows 10 operating system. The data set chosen for classification and experimental simulation is based on a statistical data obtained from a three-year field study of the nine states of the ND region of Nigeria. The average training and testing errors of 0.015514 and 0.053247 were obtained at 50 epochs for the model using a hybrid algorithm. PCA reduced the dimension of the original data set at a Cronbach’s alpha of over 0.8 with a 10-fold cross validation, thereby reducing the computational complexity and inference time of the model. The model predicted the conflict risk with an average accuracy of 92.85% and this compared favourably with domain experts conventional conflict prediction approaches. The result obtained gives a promising conclusion that the model is effective in predicting at high level of accuracy, the degree of conflict and presents a veritable decision support for conflict resolution and mediation agencies and stakeholders.