A Neural Network Evidence of the Nexus Among Air Pollution, Economic Growth, and COVID-19 Deaths in the Hubei Area

Department Of Political Sciences, Roma Tre University ,Cosimo Magazzino,Marco Mele

doi:10.21926/aeer.2102008

Department Of Political Sciences, Roma Tre University , Cosimo Magazzino + Show 1 more

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https://doi.org/10.21926/aeer.2102008

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Abstract

In this study, we used an image neural network model to assess the relationship between economic growth, pollution (PM2.5, PM10, and CO2), and deaths from COVID-19 in the Hubei area (China). Data analysis, neural network analysis, and deep learning experiments were carried out to assess the relationship among COVID-19 deaths, air pollution, and economic growth in China (Hubei province, the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic). We collected daily data at a city level from January 20 to July 31, 2020. We used main cities in the Hubei province, with data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths, air pollution (expressed in µg/m3 as PM2.5, PM10, and CO2), and per capita economic growth. Following the most recent contributions on the relationship among air pollution, GDP, and diffusion of COVID-19, we generated an algorithm capable of identifying a neural connection among these variables. The results confirmed a strong predictive relationship for the Hubei area between changes in the economic growth, fine particles, and deaths from COVID-19. These results would recommend adequate environmental reforms to policymakers to contain the spread and adverse effects of the virus. Therefore, there is a requirement to reconsider the system of transport and return to production by combining it with economic growth to protect the planet.

Highlights

Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) is a viral respiratory disease that can be contracted by being close to an infected person or with a contaminated surface
The scientific research community is evaluating over 200 vaccine candidates to defeat the COVID-19 pandemic; there is currently no definitive cure
According to the conception proposed earlier by Becchetti et al [29] and Dominici et al [30] that fine particulates and carbon dioxide can play a direct and an indirect role in the diffusion and death from COVID-19, the present study focused its attention on the viral zone of Hubei

Summary

Introduction

Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) is a viral respiratory disease that can be contracted by being close to an infected person or with a contaminated surface. By early 2020, the virus had spread to many countries in the world, forcing countries to begin practicing safety measures [1]. China was the epicenter of COVID-19 before it spread to other parts of the world in late 2019. In March 2020, the WHO declared COVID-19 as a global pandemic, paving the way for countries to take preventive measures. China had started dealing with the virus long before it was declared a global pandemic. The Asian countries began the practice of lockdown in their cities, controlling movements and grounding their planes. The Coronavirus pandemic situation slowed down China’s economic growth, causing a major hit to the world’s second-largest economy

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