A network traffic forecasting method based on SA optimized ARIMA–BP neural network

Abstract

Network traffic forecasting provides key information for network management, resource allocation, traffic attack detection. However, traditional linear and non-linear network traffic forecasting models cannot achieve enough prediction accuracy for future traffic prediction. In order to resolve this problem, a network traffic prediction method based on SA (Simulated Annealing) optimized ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model)-BPNN (Back Propagation Neural Network) is proposed in this paper, which makes comprehensive use of linear model ARIMA, non-linear model BPNN and optimization algorithm SA. With enhancement of the BPNN global optimization ability, it can fully realize the potential of mining linear and non-linear laws of historical network traffic data, hence improving the prediction accuracy. This paper selects the historical network traffic data of two different sampling points in the WIDE project to predict, and utilizes the MAE(Mean Absolute Error), RMSE(Root Mean Square Error), and the MAPE(Mean Absolute Percentage Error) as the evaluation index of the prediction effect. Experimental results show that our proposed method outperformed traditional network traffic prediction model, with several improvements in network traffic prediction accuracy.