A network population model of the dynamics and control of African malaria vectors

Abstract

A more robust assessment of malaria control through mosquito larval habitat destruction will come from a better understanding of the distribution, productivity and connectivity of breeding sites. The present study examines the significance of vector dispersal ability, larval habitat stability and productivity on the persistence and extinction of a mosquito population inhabiting a dynamic network of breeding sites. We use this novel method of vector modelling to show that when dispersal is limited or vector distribution is patchy, the spread and growth of a mosquito population at the onset of a rainy season is delayed and extinction through larval habitat destruction is more readily achieved. We also determine the impact of two alternative dry-season survival strategies on mosquito dynamics. Simulations suggest that if adult vectors remain dormant throughout the dry season, the stage structure of the population will be synchronized at the onset of the wet season and its growth will be delayed. In contrast, a population that continues to breed throughout the dry season grows more rapidly and is more difficult to control. Our findings have important implications on the development of integrative malaria vector management strategies and on the understanding of dry-season survival mechanisms of African malaria vectors.