Abstract
We present a Bayesian inversion method for estimating volcanic ash emissions using satellite retrievals of ash column load and an atmospheric dispersion model. An a priori description of the emissions is used based on observations of the rise height of the volcanic plume and a stochastic model of the possible emissions. Satellite data are processed to give column loads where ash is detected and to give information on where we have high confidence that there is negligible ash. An atmospheric dispersion model is used to relate emissions and column loads. Gaussian distributions are assumed for the a priori emissions and for the errors in the satellite retrievals. The optimal emissions estimate is obtained by finding the peak of the a posteriori probability density under the constraint that the emissions are non-negative. We apply this inversion method within a framework designed for use during an eruption with the emission estimates (for any given emission time) being revised over time as more information becomes available. We demonstrate the approach for the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull and 2011 Grímsvötn eruptions. We apply the approach in two ways, using only the ash retrievals and using both the ash and clear sky retrievals. For Eyjafjallajökull we have compared with an independent dataset not used in the inversion and have found that the inversion-derived emissions lead to improved predictions.
Highlights
Volcanic ash clouds pose a hazard to aviation and there have been significant incidents where ash has affected aircraft [1,2]
Satellite observations and atmospheric dispersion models play an important role in providing such guidance by enabling the ash to be detected and its evolution to be predicted
The plume rise heights were provided in real time to the London Volcanic Ash AdvisoryCentres (VAACs) by the Icelandic Met Office
Summary
Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. Volcanic ash clouds pose a hazard to aviation and there have been significant incidents where ash has affected aircraft [1,2]. In response to this hazard, the Volcanic Ash Advisory. Centres (VAACs) were established to provide guidance to aviation on the location of volcanic ash. Satellite observations and atmospheric dispersion models play an important role in providing such guidance by enabling the ash to be detected and its evolution to be predicted
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