Abstract
In this study, a real time maritime traffic support model is developed for safe navigation in the Strait of Istanbul, also known as the Bosporus. The present model simulates vessel trajectories corresponding to possible headings, using channel geometry, counter traffic, and surface currents as input. A new MATLAB code is developed for the simulation and the Marine GNC Toolbox (Fossen and Perez, 2004) is used for the vessel hydrodynamics and the auto-pilot model. After computing the trajectory tree of the vessel by forward-mapping its position distribution with respect to the initial position vector, the casualty probabilities of each trajectory are found. Within certain restrictions on vessel geometry, the proposed model predicts the safest possible intended course for the transit vessels based on the navigational parameters including position, speed, and course of the vessel. The model is tested for the Strait of Istanbul for validation. Without loss of generality, the model can be used for any narrow channel with a vessel traffic system providing the necessary input.
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