Abstract
Using the results of a unique telephone survey the frequency of consumer flights from airports in a multi-airport region are modeled using a multivariate Poisson framework, the parameters of which were estimated using a latent variable application of the expectation maximization algorithm. This offers a different perspective since other work on airport choice uses the results of airport intercept surveys that capture only a single choice per respondent, whereas the data from the phone survey is count data for the airports in the study. An airport’s own-distance had the expected negative impact on mean usage of the airport, although the cross effects were somewhat mixed. Ticket price differences between airports were not always statistically significant. Mean usage was found to be increasing in income for PHL, but was decreasing for the other airports, reflecting the increasing value of respondents’ time as their income rises. If the destination of flights is domestic (international) then the result is to increase usage of PHL, BWI and EWR (JFK). Except for JFK, if the purpose of travel is mostly pleasure then it results in more travel from JFK and less from the other three airports. The availability of a low cost carrier would result in more frequent travel.
Highlights
IntroductionUsing the results of a unique telephone survey the frequency of consumer flights from airports in a multi-airport region are modeled using a multivariate Poisson framework
Using the results of a unique telephone survey the frequency of consumer flights from airports in a multi-airport region are modeled using a multivariate Poisson framework, the parameters of which were estimated using a latent variable application of the expectation maximization algorithm. This offers a different perspective since other work on airport choice uses the results of airport intercept surveys that capture only a single choice per respondent, whereas the data from the phone survey is count data for the airports in the study
Other work on airport choice uses the results of airport intercept surveys that capture only a single choice per respondent, whereas the data from the phone survey used in this paper is count data for the four airports in the study
Summary
Using the results of a unique telephone survey the frequency of consumer flights from airports in a multi-airport region are modeled using a multivariate Poisson framework. This offers a different perspective from previous research in two important ways. Thompson and Caves [7] used data for 1983 to study airport choice in northern England For both business and leisure travelers distance to the airport and number of available seats were important. In the San Francisco market Harvey [8] found access time and frequency of service to be determinative None of these earlier efforts would lead one to believe that the difference in fares from different airports would lead to more competition among carriers, or that fare differences could lead to the reallocation of market share among airports. If the purpose of the trips was predominantly business than respondents were more likely to fly from PHL, BWI, and EWR, but not JFK
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