A multivariate discrete grey model for estimating the waste from mobile phones, televisions, and personal computers in India

Abstract

Reliable estimation of e-waste in developing countries like India is a challenging task due to the absence of statistical data and a real-life disposal pattern. The existing literature lacks models and approaches for e-waste assessment that are capable of providing meaningful results with relatively limited data. The present study addresses this research gap by proposing a stock lifespan model that uses in-use stock and lifespan of the electronic product to estimate the e-waste. An improved multivariate Discrete Grey Model combining Fourier Transform and Exponential smoothing technique [EFDGM (1, N)] is used to forecast the in-use stock of mobile phones, televisions, and personal computers considering the Gross Domestic Product, rural and urban population. Further, the results are compared with Discrete Grey Model and multiple linear regression. The e-waste quantity is then estimated using the projected in-use stock and lifespan distribution of the electronic products modeled using Weibull distribution. Considering the diversity in Indian society, the proposed approach is applied to estimate the e-waste at the national level and also to assess the contributions from five major states and Delhi, India’s capital territory. A sensitivity analysis is also performed to assess the impact of possible variations in the lifespan and the average weight of Electrical and Electronics items considered in the final estimate of waste generation. From our results, we estimate that around 0.72 million tonnes (Mt) of e-waste will be generated in India in the year 2030 from the three products.