A Multivariate Analysis of Risk Factors for Cerebrovascular Disease in Hisayama, Kyushu Island, Japan

Abstract

A multivariate analysis of risk factors for cerebrovascular disease (CVD) has been applied to 78 CVD cases in 1,419 residents during a six-year follow-up period in Hisayama, Kyushu Island, Japan. Age or systolic blood pressure among thirteen variates showed the largest coefficient in the discriminant function in standard unit in both CVD as a whole and cerebral thrombosis for both sexes. After the probability (P) of developing disease was calculated by a logistic function using the estimated coefficients, about one-third of the subjects were assigned to the highest decile group of P and the subsequent four-year follow-up study showed that over eighty per cent of the newly developed 22 cerebral thrombosis occurred in the highest decile group. Increasing number of the variates did not necessarily improve the correct prediction rate for cerebral thrombosis and six or seven variates were most predictive in the present analysis.