A multistate modeling approach to investigate long-term effects of claw horn disruption lesions and early lesion development in dairy cows

Abstract

Claw horn disruption lesions (CHDL) are a leading cause of lameness in dairy cattle, and the development, effect, and pathology of these lesions remains an open area of interest within dairy cattle health. Current literature typically attempts to measure the effect of risk factors on the development of CHDL over a relatively short time period. Further understanding of the interaction of CHDL and the long-term effect of early CHDL in a cow's life remains an important area of research which is so far mostly unexplored. In this study 57,974 cows from 1,332 herds were selected and their regular claw trimming records containing important claw health information were used to model the long-term effect of lesions in a cow's lifetime in a 6-state multistate model. A multistate model predicts the time before transition from any one state to another and the probability of transition to a future state. The 6 lesion states that were modeled were as follows: never had a lesion, first recorded lesion event, no recorded lesion after first lesion event, second or subsequent recorded lesion event, no recorded lesion after second or subsequent lesion event, and culled. The effect of various cow level covariates on the transition probabilities between various states was tested. For the first time, this study shows the importance and effect of the first lesion and other cow level factors on long-term claw health. Model results showed that the timing and severity of the first recorded lesion event significantly influenced the likelihood of a future lesion being present. Cows with CHDL present within the 180 d of first calving had a short-term increased risk and long-term decreased risk of a future lesion, compared with cows that present with CHDL later than 180 d of first lactation. Moreover, presence of a severe first lesion increased a cow's risk of a future lesion being present. The model was used to evaluate the relative difference between high-risk cows (age of first calving ≥793 d, breeding values in the lowest quartile) and low-risk cows (age of first calving ≤718 d, breeding values in the highest quartile). Our results indicated that these low-risk cows present with a lesion on an average 3 mo later than high-risk cows. Furthermore, results from the model evaluation of a simulated herd with cows with breeding values in the higher quartile indicated that cows present with a CHDL on an average 7.5 mo later compared with a herd where cows have breeding values distributed in a lower quartile.