Abstract
In this paper, a generalized method is proposed to predict the output of a typical wind farm with a multi-state probabilistic model. The impacts of ice coating on the wind farm power output (WFPO) on reliability is evaluated in detail. Based on the analysis of the data sets of ice coating loss from the wind farms located in Guizhou, the southern mountainous area in China, the WFPO model is modified and optimized considered the power loss due to ice coating. This paper proposes a more generalized way to analyze the impacts of complex terrains and wake effects. The internal connection cables, wind turbine (WT) failures and electrical wiring model of the wind farm are also analyzed. A Monte Carlo simulation approach is used to simulate the overall annual WFPO. Based on the cluster analysis, the corresponding multi-state probabilistic model is established to analyze the output of a typical wind farm.
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