A multispecies statistical age-structured model to assess predator–prey balance: application to an intensively managed Lake Michigan pelagic fish community

Abstract

Using a Bayesian modeling approach, we developed a multispecies statistical age-structured model to assess trade-offs between predatory demands and prey productivities, with the aim to inform management of top predators. Focusing on the Lake Michigan fish community, we assessed these trade-offs in terms of predation mortalities and productivities of alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) and rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) and functional responses of salmonines. Our predation mortality estimates suggested that salmonine consumption has been a major driver of prey dynamics, with sharp declines in alewife abundance in the 1960s–1980s and the 2000s coinciding with increased predation rates. Our functional response analysis indicated that feedback mechanisms are unlikely to help maintain a predator–prey balance, with Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) consumption declining only at the lowest prey densities, while the other salmonines consumed prey at a maximum rate across all observed prey densities. This study demonstrates that a multispecies modeling approach combining stock assessment methods with explicit consideration of predator–prey interactions can provide a basis for tactical decision-making from a broader ecosystem perspective.