Abstract
Abstract : The overarching objectives of this research project are to obtain an improved understanding of the formation, predictability and structure change of tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific region. These new insights will ultimately improve forecast guidance for U.S. Naval operations in this region. In recent work the P.I. and two of his collaborators have developed a new paradigm of tropical cyclogenesis that occurs within the critical layer of easterly waves for the Atlantic and East Pacific Basins. The Kelvin cat's eye within the critical layer of a tropical easterly wave was hypothesized to be important to tropical storm formation because: H1: Wave breaking or roll-up of the cyclonic vorticity and lower-tropospheric moisture near the critical surface in the lower troposphere provides the moist vorticity region favorable for the aggregation of diabatic vortices and TC formation; H2: The cat's eye is a region of approximately closed circulation, where air is repeatedly moistened by deep moist convection and protected to some degree from dry air intrusion; H3: The parent wave is maintained and possibly enhanced by diabatically amplified mesoscale vortices within the wave.
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