A multi‐scalar evaluation of differential impacts of canonical ENSO and ENSO Modoki on drought in China

Abstract

China has experienced alarming drought events during recent decades. In this study, we investigated monthly drought severity related to the eastern Pacific cooling (EPC), eastern Pacific warming (EPW), and central Pacific warming (CPW), and analysed the differential influence of canonical ENSO (c‐ENSO) and El Niño Modoki (ENSO_M) events on monthly droughts severity based on the SPEI at multiple timescales in China. The results show that (a) EPC episodes negatively affected 1‐ and 3‐month drought severity in southeast and northeast China with negative anomalies lower than −0.4 (<−0.4) during November–February the next year. EPW and CPW episodes significantly negatively affect drought severity in central north China (<−0.8) and the coastal areas of southeast China (<−0.6) during the most months, respectively. (b) La Niña negatively affected drought severity in the most parts of northeast China (<−0.2) and southeast China (<−0.4) during the most months, and La Niña Modoki caused dry conditions in the most parts of China (<−0.2) during a few months. Significant dry conditions were observed in central north China (<−0.8) in many months during El Niño, but dry conditions covered south China (<−0.4) in the most months during El Niño Modoki. (c) SST anomalies in Niño3 and ENSO_M regimes and wind anomalies might explain the spatial distribution of dry conditions across China during c‐ENSO and ENSO_M phases. The results could provide valuable information for predicting droughts associated with the c‐ENSO and ENSO Mokodi.