Abstract
This paper highlights the statistical procedure used in developing models that have the ability of capturing and forecasting the traffic of mobile communication network operating in Vietnam. To build such models, we follow Box-Jenkins method to construct a multiplicative seasonal ARIMA model to represent the mean component using the past values of traffic, then incorporate a GARCH model to represent its volatility. The traffic is collected from EVN Telecom mobile communication network. Diagnostic tests and examination of forecast accuracy measures indicate that the multiplicative seasonal ARIMA/GARCH model, i.e. ARIMA (1, 0, 1) × (0, 1, 1)24/GARCH (1, 1) shows a good estimation when dealing with volatility clustering in the data series. This model can be considered to be a flexible model to capture well the characteristics of EVN traffic series and give reasonable forecasting results. Moreover, in such situations that the volatility is not necessary to be taken into account, i.e. short-term prediction, the multiplicative seasonal ARIMA/GARCH model still acts well with the GARCH parameters adjusted to GARCH (0, 0).
Highlights
Traffic prediction is a key factor for a better network management which is very important due to the explosive development of mobile communications and internet, especially in Vietnam, where there is a violent competition between so many service providers
Step 7: Model identification and estimation for multiplicative seasonal ARIMA/GARCH model We verify the adequacy of AR and MA terms of the mean equation by implementing the correlogram Qtest, Jarque Bera test and ARCH test on the stationary series achieved from step 2
Incorporating the stationary series achieved from step 2 and the mean equation with AR and MA terms achieved from step 3, we estimate a GARCH model by finding a significant order combination under a specific error distribution (p-values should all be less than 0.10 level of significance and coefficient of the variance equation should all be positive)
Summary
Traffic prediction is a key factor for a better network management which is very important due to the explosive development of mobile communications and internet, especially in Vietnam, where there is a violent competition between so many service providers. (2015) A Multiplicative Seasonal ARIMA/GARCH Model in EVN Traffic Prediction. A multiplicative seasonal ARIMA/GARCH model is built to fit and forecast EVN traffic.
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callMore From: International Journal of Communications, Network and System Sciences
Disclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
