A Multi-Paradigm Energy Model for Liquid Natural Gas Analysis

Abstract

The current global energy system is both highly complex and increasingly coupled. Changes in the energy supply or demand in one region of the world, or one sector of the economy, can have far reaching and often unforeseen consequences. Energy policy decisions at both the government and corporate level play a critical role in the determination of energy usage and the availability of suitable forms of energy where necessary. These policy decisions may only benefit from a deeper understanding of the interactions of entities within the system as well as the system capabilities and limitations. As the size and importance of the system prevents direct experimentation, insights must be gleaned through the modelling and simulation of energy systems. The current complex world energy system dictates that energy policy decisions can have far reaching and often unintended consequences. Therefore, sophisticated modeling techniques which allow possible future scenarios to be simulated and analyzed in advance are necessary in order to improve the decision making process. Multiparadigm modeling allows different parts of the system under consideration to be represented using the modeling technique most appropriate. This approach has been applied to the United States natural gas system and the future prospects of liquid natural gas imports over a medium term time frame have been examined.