A Multi-Objective Energy and Environmental Systems Planning Model: Management of Uncertainties and Risks for Shanxi Province, China

Abstract

In this study, a fuzzy chance-constrained fractional programming (FCFP) approach is developed to help tackle various uncertainties involved in electric power systems (EPSs) management. The FCFP approach is capable of solving ratio optimization decision problems in power systems associated with random and fuzzy information by chance-constrained programming (CCP) method, fuzzy measure programming, fractional programming (FP) into a general framework. It can tackle inexact information expressed as fuzzy set and probability distributions, comprehensively reflect the decision maker’s pessimistic and optimistic preferences, and balance dual objectives of system economy and sustainability. To demonstrate its applicability, FCFP approach is then applied to a case study of Shanxi Province, a typical coal-heavy electricity region in China. The results indicate that the FCFP approach reveals uncertain interactions among the decision maker’s preferences and various random variables. Reasonable solutions have been generated for Shanxi EPS management practices, which can provide strategies in mitigating pollutant emissions, reducing system costs, and promoting coalbed methane as an alternative energy source for coal-fired and plays an essential role in Shanxi’s municipal planning. The solutions will help decision makers generate alternatives in the event of the reducing coal-fired power generation and could be applicable in other coal-heavy electricity regions.