A multilevel multinomial logit model for the analysis of graduates’ skills

Abstract

The main goal of the paper is to specify a suitable multivariate multilevel model for polytomous responses with a non-ignorable missing data mechanisminordertodeterminethefactorswhichinfluencethewayofacquisi- tion of the skills of the graduates and to evaluate the degree programmes on the basis of the adequacy of the skills they give to their graduates. The application is based on data gathered by a telephone survey conducted, about two years after the degree, on the graduates of year 2000 of the University of Florence. A multilevel multinomial logit model for the response of interest is fitted simul- taneously with a multilevel logit model for the selection mechanism by means of maximum likelihood with adaptive Gaussian quadrature. In the application the multilevel structure has a crucial role, while selection bias results negligible. The analysis of the empirical Bayes residuals allows to detect some extreme degree programmes to be further inspected.