A multi-layer Kriging surrogate model for the reliability analysis of variable stator vanes in aero engines

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Abstract The variable stator vanes (VSV) are a set of typical spatial linkage mechanisms widely used in the variable cycle engine compressor. Various factors influence the angle adjustment precision of the VSV, leading to the failure of the mechanism. The reliability analysis of VSV is a complex task due to the involvement of multiple components, high dimensionality input and computational inefficiency. Considering the hierarchical characteristics of VSV structure, we propose a novel multi-layer Kriging surrogate (MLKG) for the reliability analysis of VSV. The MLKG combines multiple Kriging surrogate models arranged in a hierarchical structure. By breaking the problem down into more minor problems, MLKG works by presenting each small problem as a Kriging model and reducing the input dimension of the sub-layer Kriging model. In this way, the MLKG can capture the complex interactions between the inputs and outputs of the problem while maintaining a high degree of accuracy and efficiency. This study proves the error propagation process of MLKG. To evaluate MLKG’s accuracy, we test it on two typical high-dimensional non-linearity functions (Rosenbrock and Michalewicz function). We compared MLKG with some contemporary KG surrogate modeling techniques using mean squared error (MSE) and R square ( ${R^2}$ ). Results show that MLKG achieves an excellent level of accuracy for reliability analysis in high-dimensional problems with a small number of sample points.