A Multilayer Bayesian Network Approach-Based Predictive Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Overhead Contact Lines Under External Weather Conditions

Abstract

Due to being completely exposed outdoors without backup, overhead contact lines (OCLs) are more vulnerable to external weather conditions. To perceive the weather-related failure risk and evaluate the associated potential risks, a multilayer Bayesian network (MLBN) approach is proposed for predictive probabilistic risk assessment for OCLs. More specifically, the weather-driven failure probabilities of OCLs are predicted using a first-layer Bayesian network (BN), including lightning strikes, windstorms, and fog-haze. Then, the weather-driven failure patterns of OCLs are investigated and captured, and furthermore, the second-layer BN is embedded to evaluate the risk propagation. Furthermore, the third-layer BN is implemented to calculate and quantify weather-driven risk consequences from perspectives of economic loss and social trust loss constrained by power outage time and train timetable. The three-layer BN models are built by connecting the nodes with causal relationships, avoiding complicated structure learning. The experiments on the actual OCL failure records and weather data demonstrate that the proposed MLBN approach can identify weather-involved risk activities and comprehensively analyze the weather-driven cumulative risks of OCLs from spatiotemporal perspectives. In addition, it is capable of giving reasonable guiding information for mitigating the operational risks of OCLs against external weather conditions.