Abstract
In this paper, the impact of climate change on the climate and discharge of the Dez Dam Basin and the hydropower potential of two hydropower plants (Bakhtiari and Dez) is investigated based on the downscaled outputs of six GCMs (General Circulation Models) and three SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) scenarios for the early, mid and late 21st century. Projections of all the scenarios and GCMs revealed a significant rise in temperature (up to 4.9 °C) and slight to moderate variation in precipitation (up to 18%). Outputs of the HBV hydrologic model, enforced by projected datasets, show a reduction of the annual flow by 33% under the climate change condition. Further, analyzing the induced changes in the inflow and hydropower generation potential of the Bakhtiari and Dez dams showed that both inflow and hydropower generation is significantly affected by climate change. For the Bakhtiari dam, this indicates a consistent reduction of inflow (up to 27%) and electricity generation (up to 32%). While, in the Dez dam case, the inflow is projected to decrease (up to 22%) and the corresponding hydropower is expected to slightly increase (up to 3%). This contrasting result for the Dez dam is assessed based on its reservoir and hydropower plant capacity, as well as other factors such as the timely releases to meet different demands and flow regime changes under climate change. The results show that the Bakhtiari reservoir and power plant will not meet the design-capacity outputs under the climate change condition as its large capacity cannot be fully utilized; while there is room for the further development of the Dez power plant. Comparing the results of the applied GCMs showed high discrepancies among the outputs of different models.
Highlights
Anthropogenic global warming and its consequences, especially in the arid and semi-arid regions, received particular attention in recent years as many scholars documented the occurrence and dominance of droughts, a rise in the temperature, and an increase in the atmospheric water demand, accompanied by a reduction in the precipitation and runoff [1,2,3,4]
We investigated the variations of hydroclimatic conditions induced by climate change in the Dez Dam Basin and its consequences with regards to the hydropower generation potential through two large dams in the basin
Considering the reasons explained above, the future changes induced by climate change in the hydropower generation potential of the Dez power plant are not consistent with the changes in the inflow of the Dez reservoir
Summary
Anthropogenic global warming and its consequences, especially in the arid and semi-arid regions, received particular attention in recent years as many scholars documented the occurrence and dominance of droughts, a rise in the temperature, and an increase in the atmospheric water demand, accompanied by a reduction in the precipitation and runoff [1,2,3,4]. Projections of the impact of climate change on the hydrological conditions on a global scale show that for low and mid-latitude regions, a reduction. The study on the future water availability in Bangladesh revealed that climate change has a significant impact on runoff and evapotranspiration because the region will face a higher irrigation demand, a decline of groundwater, and a variability of rainfall and runoff (both increasing and decreasing) [21]
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
