A Multidisciplinary Approach to Assess the Environmental Vulnerability at Local Scale in Context of Climate Change (Pilot Study in Upper Draa Valley, South Morocco)

Ahmed Karmaoui

doi:10.4172/2229-8711.1000167

Abstract

In this paper, we analyze different aspects and indicators for assessing environmental vulnerability in Upper Draa Valley (pre-Sahara of Morocco). We began this study by realization of a detailed qualitative analysis based on the calculations of 50 indicators of the environmental vulnerability index (EVI), which is developed by Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI). EVI results allow us to classify the region as a vulnerable area to climate change and anthropogenic impacts. This results show also that water and population indicators influencing the existence of their oasean ecosystems. To analyze the water vulnerability under social and climatic scenarios, we used WEAP program, that predicting urban water demand and the SDSM model which traces the simulations of future climate by forcing the model with two IPCC greenhouse gases scenarios (A2 and B2). The outputs of the models (EVI, WEAP, SDSM) serves as a basis of the “Integrative Science for Society and the Environment” (ISSE) model developed by ILTER in 2007, leading to a holistic understanding of vulnerability, in a coupled human–environment dimension.

Highlights

Impacts of global changes on ecosystems have already been observed [1,2,3], these changes were recognized in agro-systems, which results in an increased vulnerability
The climatic conditions impend to become less favorable for agricultural activity in many regions of the world [5], since the climate is a key factor in water availability, precipitation, in particular, greatly influences the amount of water
These results show increased temperature and decreased precipitations for the mentioned period in the Upper Draa Valley

Summary

Introduction

Impacts of global changes on ecosystems have already been observed [1,2,3], these changes were recognized in agro-systems, which results in an increased vulnerability. The temperature factor influences the water availability in arid region a greater amount of water is lost from the Earth’s surface and returned to the atmosphere through evapotranspiration. This is especially true for the south of the High Atlas Mountains (Morocco), where the Upper Draa Valley is located. The Upper Draa Valley is the most vulnerable to these changes because of the high dependence of the population on the ecosystem services. A sustainable management of the resource can be assured, if the impacts of future climatic changes and water availability are assessed. To assess the environmental vulnerability, we used the environmental vulnerability index (EVI), which leads a detailed diagnosis of the Upper Draa Valley environment (Figure 1)

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion