A multi-decadal hindcast of a physical–biogeochemical model and derived oceanographic indices in the Bay of Biscay

Abstract

Multiple year oceanographic simulations (hindcast) are identified as a priority oceanography product for fisheries and environment studies since they provide a unique continuous long-term dataset allowing integrated assessment of the ocean state and evolution. We performed a 37year (1972–2008) hindcast run with a coupled physical–biogeochemical model in the Bay of Biscay. The coupled model and the hindcast configuration are described. A model skill assessment is performed with a large set of in-situ data. Average seasonal currents show major circulation patterns over the shelf. Among tracers, temperature and salinity have the best agreement, ahead of nitrates and silicates, chlorophyll, and finally phosphates and ammonium. For chlorophyll, improved pattern statistics are found when compared to monthly composites of satellite-derived chlorophyll data. From the hindcast, we derived indices related to mesoscale activity (eddies, plumes, fronts, stratification) and production (chlorophyll and primary production). They help characterise the evolution of the environment in a functional way, on both the seasonal and multi-decadal scales. From these indices, first, a multivariate analysis reveals an increasing number of years that deviate from the mean seasonal pattern. Second, we propose interpretations of the simulated increasing trends detected in several of them (temperature, thermocline depth and primary production). We also recommend further developments to confirm these simulated evolutions, from addition of open boundary forcing with a global circulation model, to the improvement of the dynamics of nutrient regeneration and of the seasonal variability of secondary production. As a perspective, we review the different applications made from our hindcast in relation to anchovy life cycle, a species of major interest in the Bay of Biscay.