Abstract
The paper deals with the following questions: How to best proceed with a process of the macroeconomic transformation of a medium-size European country due to adjustment of its economy to the EU policy aimed at reducing CO 2 emission? What may be the consequences of the enforced emission limits for the economic development and future consumption? To answer these questions a computer-based system has been constructed including a macroeconomic model and a multicriteria optimization tool for two opposing objectives: maximization of the consumption and minimization of the greenhouse gases (GHG) emission. The model contains four production sectors with a special attention devoted to the energy sector, where four technologies are distinguished: the traditional, the modernized traditional and nuclear energy, and the renewable one. The model is the long-horizon one and describes equilibrium trajectories. The multicriteria optimization tool is developed using the reference point approach to support interactive analysis of Pareto optimal outcomes. Computational results are presented for the case of Poland. The welfare costs of the pursuing GHG limiting policy are assessed. Trajectories of the technological changes in time to achieve required limits of CO 2 emission are computed.
Highlights
Analysis presented in this paper merges two viewpoints: the technological and economic one
Limiting of the emissions of the greenhouse gases (GHG) aims at preventing the climate warming while the welfare/consumption of people is a common goal of the economic policy
A special attention is devoted to the energy sector
Summary
Analysis presented in this paper merges two viewpoints: the technological and economic one. Aim of the analysis is to assess the consequences of curbing gaseous emissions for the choice of the production technologies and the level of welfare of the population Most analyses concerning these issues are performed using computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. Very useful and popular, CGE models are based on the concept of equilibria of all markets with prices clearing these markets, and that all economic agents (producers and consumers) maximize their utility functions: profits and consumption respectively. Note that such an approach means microeconomic rationality in given policy framework (taxes, interest rates, etc.).
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