A multi-task deep learning framework for forecasting sparse demand of demand responsive transit

Abstract

Demand Responsive Transport (DRT) is a flexible transportation service that adjusts its routes and schedules in real time based on user requests. Real-time demand forecasting has become a timely issue since the resolution of transportation planning has increased to provide flexible services to users. Although many previous studies have been conducted to design the demand forecasting model using the mobility service historical data, there are more considerations when predicting real-time demand for on-demand mobility services. Therefore, this study aims to develop a demand forecasting model for DRT services addressing two issues. First, repeated calls for service and abandoned requests are converted into the unit of demand to capture served and potential demand. Second, given the sparsity of DRT historical data, a multi-task deep learning model is proposed to predict both the probability and volume of demand simultaneously to mitigate the data sparsity problem. A zero-inflated loss function was introduced to consider the skewed demand distribution. To attain our goals, the historical dataset of the I-MOD service trial in Yeongjongdo, Inchon, Korea was used. The performance of the proposed model is compared against several baseline models, demonstrating its superiority in forecasting demand for mobility services. The results show that a multi-task structure can alleviate the data sparsity problem by excluding where demand is not generated from the forecasting problem. The proposed models can provide insights into real-time demand forecasting with sparse demand.