A multi-stage multi-criterion group decision-making method for emergency management based on alternative chain and trust radius of experts

Abstract

Multi-criterion group decision-making (MCGDM) is common when a group of experts collectively evaluate feasible alternatives regarding a set of criteria. With the increasing complexity of decision-making activities, there may be intricate interrelationships between criteria. In addition, many MCGDM problems have a dynamic characteristic when alternatives are presented to experts sequentially. In such a multi-stage setting, previous experts have influence on later experts. To overcome these challenges in MCGDM, this study first introduces two concepts, namely, trust radius, to model the social influence of experts, and alternative chain, to represent multiple alternatives that can be coordinated at adjacent stages, and then proposes a multi-stage MCGDM method based on the alternative chain and trust radius of experts. In this method, the weights of experts are determined according to the degree that an expert is influenced by others and the degree that an expert has influence on others. The weights of criteria are determined by the Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method. This study obtains the optimal alternative chain from a 0–1 optimization model based on comprehensive scores of alternatives at each stage and compatible relationships between adjacent stages. The applicability of the proposed method is demonstrated by an illustrative example regarding emergency management of dammed lakes after natural disasters. Comparative analyses show advantages of this method.