Abstract
The mosquito-borne dengue fever is a major public health problem in tropical countries, where it is strongly conditioned by climate factors such as temperature. In this paper, we formulate a holistic machine learning strategy to analyze the temporal dynamics of temperature and dengue data and use this knowledge to produce accurate predictions of dengue, based on temperature on an annual scale. The temporal dynamics are extracted from historical data by utilizing a novel multi-stage combination of auto-encoding, window-based data representation and trend-based temporal clustering. The prediction is performed with a trend association-based nearest neighbour predictor. The effectiveness of the proposed strategy is evaluated in a case study that comprises the number of dengue and dengue hemorrhagic fever cases collected over the period 1985-2010 in 32 federal states of Mexico. The empirical study proves the viability of the proposed strategy and confirms that it outperforms various state-of-the-art competitor methods formulated both in regression and in time series forecasting analysis.
Highlights
Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne disease caused by the dengue virus
We propose a novel multi-stage machine learning strategy, denoted as AutoTiC-NN (AUTOencoding based TIme series Clustering with Nearest Neighbour) that is formulated to learn a bivariate predictive model of Dengue from Temperature
We analyze the cluster model built by AutoTiC-NN – the only method in this study equipped with a clustering descriptive skill in addition to the predictive one – to answer question 4
Summary
Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne disease caused by the dengue virus. It is a global problem that affects numerous tropical countries, with tens to hundreds of millions of people infected annually. Dengue can be deadly – annually there are thousands of deaths attributed to it. The mosquitoes carrying dengue are tropical and subtropical species that mostly live between latitudes 35 ◦N and 35 ◦S and usually in altitudes below 1000 meters. The disease-carrying mosquitoes generally grow in water-filled habitats close to human dwellings and dengue can be transmitted from community to community not just by the mosquitoes themselves, and by humans [1, p. Dengue has received considerable attention in the data analysis literature [2]–[12]. The existing studies have focused on assessing the association between a number of factors
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