A multi-stage Bayesian modelling for building the chronocultural sequence of the Late Mesolithic at Cueva de la Cocina (Valencia, Eastern Iberia)

Abstract

This paper presents a refined Mesolithic chronocultural sequence as a result of matching data provided by the set of archaeological research conducted at Cueva de la Cocina (Valencia, Spain) in the 20th and 21st centuries and the new radiocarbon dates record. Because available data are of different quality, we apply a methodological framework based on Bayesian modelling approaches. To do this, we systematically order each one of the archaeological registers and then combine the information in a unitary general chronology. Our novel approach introduces Bayesian modelling from a double analytical procedure: using Bayesian chronological models applied to the stratigraphic sequence of Pericot's excavation in Cocina cave we build a general phase model using data from multiple years of archaeological fieldwork. One the most reliable layers have been defined, we use this information to define the rest of the sequence through a Predictive Bayesian approach. This approach sheds light on evolutionary questions from a macroscale regarding the socioecological dynamics of the last hunter-gatherers and their role for explaining the subsequent agricultural spread.