Abstract
This paper examines the major challenges associated with evaluating energy demand in the residential building sector in an integrated energy system modelling environment. Three established modelling fields are examined to generate a framework for assessing the impact of energy policy: energy system models, building stock models and dynamic building simulation. A set of profound challenges emerge when attempting to integrate such models, due to distinct differences in their intended applications, operational scales, formulations and computational implementations.Detailed discussions are provided on the integration of temporally refined energy demand, based on thermodynamic processes and socio-technical effects which may stem from new policy. A detailed framework is discussed for generating aggregate residential demands, in terms of space heating demand, domestic hot water demand, and lighting, appliance and consumer electronics demand. The framework incorporates a pathway for interpreting the effects of changes in household behaviour resulting from prospective policy measures. When long-term planning exercises are carried out using this framework, the cyclic effects between behavioural change and policy implementation are also considered. This work focused specifically on the United Kingdom energy system, however parallels can be drawn with other countries, in particular those with a mature privatised system, dominated by space heating concerns.
Highlights
One of the challenges that has become firmly rooted at the centre of energy planning discussions is the evaluation and characterisation of temporally precise energy demands from the built environment
Facilitate feedback of policy driven energy demand changes back into the integrated energy system models (ESMs), to ensure that long-term causal effects are considered. The first of these is intended to enhance the potential of ESMs to capture the social and behavioural interaction between society and the policy and technological changes that may occur in the future
The framework presented in this paper embeds tools which traditionally sit outside the relm of long-term energy planning; in particular, Dynamic Building Simulation (DBS) for thermal demands, and statistical tools which reproduce non-heating residential loads
Summary
One of the challenges that has become firmly rooted at the centre of energy planning discussions is the evaluation and characterisation of temporally precise energy demands from the built environment. Facilitate feedback of policy driven energy demand changes back into the integrated ESM, to ensure that long-term causal effects are considered The first of these is intended to enhance the potential of ESMs to capture the social and behavioural interaction between society and the policy and technological changes that may occur in the future. The framework presented in this paper embeds tools which traditionally sit outside the relm of long-term energy planning; in particular, Dynamic Building Simulation (DBS) for thermal demands, and statistical tools which reproduce non-heating residential loads This facilitates new ways to provide richer inputs to ESMs, that can challenge socio-political-technical issues. It is interesting to note other commentary on the current upheaval of the UK energy system, including that provided in McMeekin et al (2019)
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