A multi-risks group evaluation method for the informatization project under linguistic environment

Abstract

Many risks exist in the informatization project due to its high complexity and diversification and its low success rate. Making an effective assessment of these is key to the risk management of the informatization project. In this paper, we introduce a group assessment approach based on a Cloud model and VIKOR method. This method increases the fairness and reliability of the assessment results that may be adversely affected by the uncertainty and fuzziness caused by the experts' subjective perception and experience. In this method, the qualitative fuzziness of an expert linguistic assessment is transformed into a quantitative cloud model. The consistency of the experts is then measured by extending the consistency index to the cloud model. Next, an optimal programming model that combines the expert's subjective information with the algorithm of maximum deviation is constructed. The optimal weight of each expert is subsequently calculated. Finally, the risk of the informatization project can be sorted, selected, and classified using the VIKOR method based on the judgment criteria. A numerical example is given to illustrate the efficiency and rationality of the proposed method.