A multi-region analysis on drivers of energy related CO2 emissions in India from 2013 to 2021

Abstract

As the world's most populous country and the second largest emerging economy, India has become the third largest CO2 emitter in the world for many years. While India has proposed to achieve carbon neutrality target by 2070, previous studies have not systematically investigated factors that influence national and regional CO2 emissions. Thus, we decompose energy related CO2 emissions at national and regional levels based on the panel data of 32 states during the period 2013–2021 using Logarithmic Mean Divisibility Index (LMDI) method and disclose the different driving mechanisms of energy related CO2 emissions across five regions in India. Results show that, the economic output effect majorly promotes national and regional energy related CO2 emissions, followed by the energy structure effect and the population size effect. However, the energy intensity effect and industrial structure effect obviously inhibit national and regional CO2 emissions. Additionally, the population distribution effect inhibits energy related CO2 emissions at the national level (−4.67%), while this effect on regional emissions varies. For instance, the population distribution effect promotes energy related CO2 emissions in the densely populated northern and western regions (2.04% and 0.12%, respectively), but inhibits emissions in the sparsely populated southern, eastern, and northeastern regions (−33.97%, −8.15% and − 1.18%, respectively). Our results suggest that formulation of appropriate economic and population growth plan specifically for India's northern and western states as well as improvements of national and regional industrial structure and energy use structure would be needed.