A multi-model ensemble-based CMIP6 assessment of future solar radiation and PV potential under various climate warming scenarios

Abstract

The ability of the hybrid evolutionary auto-regression integrated moving average (ARIMA) with a transformed probabilistically optimized Gumbel (GP) model (ARIMA-GP) and empirical technique (EM-GP) to predict global solar radiation (H) was investigated in Nigeria. The outcome showed that the hybrid ARIMA-GP2 (0, 0, 0) significantly outperformed the empirical and other ARIMA configuration models. Additionally, the potential for PV generation was estimated using six different PV power technology models that were fitted to Nigeria's comparable climatic conditions. It was found that, compared to other technologies, poly-crystalline silicon (p-Si) technology yielded the highest increase in solar PV output compared to other modules in both moderate forcing-case scenarios (SSP245) and strong forcing-case scenarios (SSP585) between 2015–2050 and 2051–2099. However, in the mitigation-case scenario (SSP126), amorphous silicon (a-Si) technology produces less than a 1% increase in solar PV production, while other technologies produce less than a 1% decrease in solar PV output. The CMIP6 climate model was also used to assess the effects of climate change on global solar radiation (insolation). With the exception of the far-future sequencing period (2051–2099), as the impact of climate change intensifies, there may be a corresponding increase in insolation in the moderate forcing- and strong forcing-case scenarios in all seasons between 2015–2050 and 2051–2099, as well as in the annual resolution. However, under the mitigation-case scenario (SSP126), with the exception of the DJF season during the 2015–2050 and 2051–2099 sequencing periods, impacts of climate change resulted in a maximum decline in insolation of 2.988% in Nigeria. This suggests that solar energy should be Nigeria's primary source of renewable energy and low-carbon economic planning, but Nigeria may not achieve the net-zero energy transition by 2050 if prompt climate mitigation and adaptation measures are not implemented.