A multi-model assessment of climate change damage in China and the world

Abstract

Quantifying climate damage is essential to informing rational climate policies, but only a few studies have systematically compared the climate damage estimates made by different models, especially for China. In this study, we used three widely applied integrated assessment models—FUND, RICE, and PAGE—to estimate the damage under coupled shared socioeconomic pathways and representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Results show that the costs of climate damage constitute approximately 1.5% and 0.7% of China's GDP and global GDP per 1 °C temperature rise on average, respectively. Mitigation can reduce climate risk by lowering the average estimate and worst-case effects of climate damage. Compared with business-as-usual emissions (RCP8.5), the 2 °C target will reduce the average estimate of climate damage for China and the world by 93% and 87%, respectively, and by 80% and 84%, respectively, in the worst-case situation. Sectorial analysis of climate damage highlights the inconsistency of sector scope and significant parameter uncertainties in damage modules, requiring further improvement to integrate subfield research advances, particularly for damage related to rising sea levels and cooling energy demand.