A MULTI-MODEL ANALYSIS OF THE REGIONAL AND SECTORAL ROLES OF BIOENERGY IN NEAR- AND LONG-TERM CO2 EMISSIONS REDUCTION

Abstract

This paper examines the near- and the long-term contribution of regional and sectoral bioenergy use in response to both regionally diverse near-term policies and longer-term global climate change mitigation policies. The use of several models provides a source of heterogeneity in terms of incorporating uncertain assumptions about future socioeconomics and technology, as well as different paradigms for how different regions and major economies of the world may respond to climate policies. The results highlight the heterogeneity and versatility of bioenergy itself, with different types of resources and applications in several energy sectors. In large part due to this versatility, the contribution of bioenergy to climate mitigation is a robust response across all models. Regional differences in bioenergy consumption, however, highlight the importance of assumptions about trade in bioenergy feedstocks and the influence of energy and climate policies. When global trade in bioenergy is possible, regional patterns of bioenergy use follow global patterns. When trade is assumed not to be feasible, regions with high bioenergy supply potential tend to consume more bioenergy than other regions. Energy and climate policies, such as renewable energy targets, can incentivize bioenergy use, but specifics of the policies will dictate the degree to which this is true. For example, renewable final energy targets, which include electric and non-electric renewable sources, increase bioenergy use in all models, while electric-only renewable targets have a mixed effect on bioenergy use across models.