A multi-model analysis of change in potential yield of major crops in China under climate change

Y Yin,X Liu,Q Tang

doi:10.5194/esd-6-45-2015

Abstract

Abstract. Climate change may affect crop growth and yield, which consequently casts a shadow of doubt over China's food self-sufficiency efforts. In this study, we used the projections derived from four global gridded crop models (GGCropMs) to assess the effects of future climate change on the yields of the major crops (i.e., maize, rice, soybean and wheat) in China. The GGCropMs were forced with the bias-corrected climate data from five global climate models (GCMs) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, which were made available through the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP). The results show that the potential yields of the crops would decrease in the 21st century without carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization effect. With the CO2 effect, the potential yields of rice and soybean would increase, while the potential yields of maize and wheat would decrease. The uncertainty in yields resulting from the GGCropMs is larger than the uncertainty derived from GCMs in the greater part of China. Climate change may benefit rice and soybean yields in high-altitude and cold regions which are not in the current main agricultural area. However, the potential yields of maize, soybean and wheat may decrease in the major food production area. Development of new agronomic management strategies may be useful for coping with climate change in the areas with a high risk of yield reduction.

Highlights

Global mean surface temperature increased by 0.85 ◦C per 100 years over the period of 1880–2012, and it is likely to increase 1.5–2 ◦C at the end of the 21st century compared to the period of 1850–1900 (IPCC, 2013)
Projections of changes in crop yields in China are widely reported using crop models with global climate model (GCM) outputs which were generated for the Assessment Report of the IPCC (i.e., Parry et al, 2004; Tao et al, 2008a, 2013; Wang et al, 2011; Lv et al, 2013; Ju et al, 2013)
The projections without the CO2 effect suggest that the yield of maize, rice, soybean and wheat would decrease by up to 25 %, while the projections with the CO2 effect show that the yield would decrease by less than 5 % for maize and wheat and increase by 10 % for rice and soybean under RCP8.5 at the end of the 21st century in China

Summary

Introduction

Global mean surface temperature increased by 0.85 ◦C per 100 years over the period of 1880–2012, and it is likely to increase 1.5–2 ◦C at the end of the 21st century compared to the period of 1850–1900 (IPCC, 2013). Projections of changes in crop yields in China are widely reported using crop models (process-based or statistical) with global climate model (GCM) outputs which were generated for the Assessment Report of the IPCC (i.e., Parry et al, 2004; Tao et al, 2008a, 2013; Wang et al, 2011; Lv et al, 2013; Ju et al, 2013). Liu et al (2013) found that the production of major food crops in China might increase under various emission scenarios, the projections of climate change impacts on crop yields may be inherently uncertain (Asseng et al, 2013) G. Liu et al (2013) found that the production of major food crops in China might increase under various emission scenarios, the projections of climate change impacts on crop yields may be inherently uncertain (Asseng et al, 2013)

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Conclusion