Abstract
Abstract. In the course of glacier retreat, new glacier lakes can develop. As such lakes can be a source of natural hazards, strategies for predicting future glacier lake formation are important for an early planning of safety measures. In this article, a multi-level strategy for the identification of overdeepened parts of the glacier beds and, hence, sites with potential future lake formation, is presented. At the first two of the four levels of this strategy, glacier bed overdeepenings are estimated qualitatively and over large regions based on a digital elevation model (DEM) and digital glacier outlines. On level 3, more detailed and laborious models are applied for modeling the glacier bed topography over smaller regions; and on level 4, special situations must be investigated in-situ with detailed measurements such as geophysical soundings. The approaches of the strategy are validated using historical data from Trift Glacier, where a lake formed over the past decade. Scenarios of future glacier lakes are shown for the two test regions Aletsch and Bernina in the Swiss Alps. In the Bernina region, potential future lake outbursts are modeled, using a GIS-based hydrological flow routing model. As shown by a corresponding test, the ASTER GDEM and the SRTM DEM are both suitable to be used within the proposed strategy. Application of this strategy in other mountain regions of the world is therefore possible as well.
Highlights
In proximity to melting conditions, snow and ice react sensitively to climate change (Haeberli and Beniston, 1998)
For the Aletsch and for the Bernina test regions, locations with potential future lake formation were delineated based on the results of levels 1 and 2 (Figs. 5 and 6)
Starting with the first level to gain a rough overview over a large region, the strategy subsequently focuses on smaller regions in more detail, down to in-situ geophysical measurements in the field
Summary
In proximity to melting conditions, snow and ice react sensitively to climate change (Haeberli and Beniston, 1998). High-mountain landscapes that are dominated by glacial and periglacial processes are influenced by the governing climatic conditions and their changes. Associated with glacier retreat, pro-glacial lakes can form behind moraine dams or in overdeepened parts of the exposed glacier bed. Such new lakes are attractive elements in a landscape and compensate to a certain degree the loss of attractiveness from glacier disappearance (Haeberli and Hohmann, 2008). They constitute interesting potentials for hydropower production. Glacier lakes can pose a potential threat to the population and infrastructure in the valleys below as they are forming in an environment dominated by interacting, rapidly changing and highly dynamic processes
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