A multi-level model of emerging technology: An empirical study of the evolution of biotechnology from 1976 to 2003.

Ad Van Den Oord,Arjen Van Witteloostuijn

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0197024

Abstract

In this paper, we develop an ecological, multi-level model that can be used to study the evolution of emerging technology. More specifically, by defining technology as a system composed of a set of interacting components, we can build upon the argument of multi-level density dependence from organizational ecology to develop a distribution-independent model of technological evolution. This allows us to distinguish between different stages of component development, which provides more insight into the emergence of stable component configurations, or dominant designs. We validate our hypotheses in the biotechnology industry by using patent data from the USPTO from 1976 to 2003.

Highlights

In our industrial and post-industrial societies, technology plays a highly important role, structuring the relationship between individuals, groups, organizations, and industries [1, 2, 3, 4]
Our estimates generate broad support for many of our hypotheses, providing evidence for our claim that there are different stages of technological evolution at the component level, each associated with specific stage-dependent evolutionary processes
This allows us to move beyond a mere caricature of technological evolution as an S-shaped growth pattern [99], and enables an investigation into the processes that underlie this characteristic growth pattern

Summary

Introduction

In our industrial and post-industrial societies, technology plays a highly important role, structuring the relationship between individuals, groups, organizations, and industries [1, 2, 3, 4]. A multi-level model of emerging technology first hypothesis explores the effect of the density of the component on its own development and evolution. Especially in the seed stage of development, due to the high levels of uncertainty [6], organizational density has a legitimating effect on technology and, a positive effect on component growth.

Results

Conclusion