A Multi-Level Analysis of Risky Streets and Neighbourhoods for Dissident Republican Violence in Belfast

Zoe Marchment,Michael J Frith,Paul Gill,John Morrison

doi:10.3390/ijgi10110765

Abstract

This paper uses graph theoretical measures to analyse the relationship between street network usage, as well as other street- and area-level factors, and dissident Republican violence in Belfast. A multi-level statistical model is used. Specifically, we employ an observation-level random-effects (OLRE) Poisson regression and use variables at the street and area levels. Street- and area-level characteristics simultaneously influence where violent incidents occur. For every 10% change in the betweenness value of a street segment, the segment is expected to experience 1.32 times as many incidents. Police stations (IRR: 22.05), protestant churches (IRR: 6.19) and commercial premises (IRR: 1.44) on each street segment were also all found to significantly increase the expected number of attacks. At the small-area level, for every 10% change in the number of Catholic residents, the number of incidents is expected to be 4.45 times as many. The results indicate that along with other factors, the street network plays a role in shaping terrorist target selection. Streets that are more connected and more likely to be traversed will experience more incidents than those that are not. This has important practical implications for the policing of political violence in Northern Ireland generally and for shaping specific targeted interventions.

Highlights

Criminological research on terrorism and other forms of political violence has recently increased
Each variable’s effect is shown in terms of their estimated incident rate ratios (IRR) which represent the expected multiplicative change in the attack counts on a street segment given a one-unit change in the associated variable, e.g., for an additional police station
Most research regarding the geography of terrorist attacks and target selection has related to identifying hotspots of events

Summary

Introduction

Criminological research on terrorism and other forms of political violence has recently increased. Major advances have occurred, notable gaps still exist. A problem with these approaches, is that they largely ignore a key factor influencing where crimes occur: the street network. From a crime pattern theory perspective, a city’s street network is worth considering. It largely determines the routes that people can take during their daily lives, and shapes their awareness space [6]. Offences will occur when this awareness space overlaps with an opportunity for criminal activity. More accessible streets, where urban movement will be highest, experience more crime [7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16]

Methods

Results

Conclusion