A multi-factor combined traffic flow prediction model with secondary decomposition and improved entropy weight method

Abstract

Traffic flow (TF) prediction is vital in traffic systems. Aiming at the effect of noise on complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN), an improved CEEMDAN based on amplitude-aware permutation entropy (AAPE), named ICEEMDAN, is proposed. Aiming at the parameter selection problems on variational mode decomposition (VMD), VMD improved by pelican optimization algorithm (POA) is proposed, called PVMD. Aiming at the parameter selection problems of bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) and kernel extreme learning machine (KELM), BiLSTM improved by sea-horse optimizer (SHO), named SHOBiLSTM, and KELM improved by nutcracker optimizer algorithm (NOA), named NOAKELM are proposed, respectively. Since the chaotic characteristics of TF, multi-factor combined TF prediction model with ICEEMDAN, PVMD, SHOBiLSTM, NOAKELM, improved entropy weight method is proposed. First, use ICEEMDAN to decompose TF and get intrinsic mode functions (IMFs). Second, refined composite multiscale dispersion entropy (RCMDE) is used to divide IMFs into the fuzzy and detail components, fuzzy components are secondarily decomposed by PVMD, IMFs and factors are multi-factor predicted by SHOBiLSTM and NOAKELM. Finally, improved entropy weight method is proposed to weight SHOBiLSTM and NOAKELM results. TF of the UK highway proves the superiority. Experiments indicate that the proposed model is better than other nine models with RMSE, MAE, MAPE and R2 of 29.5868, 22.0431, 0.0701 and 0.9947 for TF I. The outcomes suggest this proposed model precedes nine models at 99% confidence level, providing data basis and theoretical for travel plans and traffic system.