Abstract
Significant wetland loss (~72%; 1.4 million hectares) in the Province of Ontario, Canada, has resulted in damage to important ecosystem services that mitigate the effects of global change. In response, major agencies have set goals to halt this loss and work to restore wetlands to varying degrees of function and area. To aid those agencies, this study was guided by four research questions: (i) Which physical and ecological landscape criteria represent high suitability for wetland reconstruction? (ii) Of common wetland suitability metrics, which are most important? (iii) Can a multi-criteria wetland suitability index (WSI) effectively locate high and low wetland suitability across the Ontario Mixedwood Plains Ecozone? (iv) How do best sites from the WSI compare and contrast to both inventories of presettlement wetlands and current existing wetlands? The WSI was created based on seven criteria, normalized from 0 (low suitability) to 10 (high suitability), and illustrated through a weighted composite raster. Using an Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and importance determined from a scoping review of relevant literature, soil drainage had the greatest meaning and weight within the WSI (48.2%). The Getis-Ord Gi* index charted statistically significant “hot spots” and “cold spots” of wetland suitability. Last, the overlay analysis revealed greater similarity between high suitability sites and presettlement wetlands supporting the severity of historic wetland cannibalization. In sum, this transferable modeling approach to regional wetland restoration provides a prioritization tool for improving ecological connectivity, services, and resilience.
Highlights
With growing intensity and speed, the Earth is undergoing a massive environmental transformation best described as global change [1,2]
To aid major agencies in their macroscale wetland restoration efforts, this study was guided by four research questions: (i) Which physical and ecological landscape criteria represent high suitability for wetland reconstruction? (ii) Of the common wetland suitability metrics, which are most important? (iii) Can a multi-criteria wetland suitability index (WSI) effectively locate high and low wetland suitability across the Ontario Mixedwood Plains Ecozone? (iv) How do best sites from the WSI compare and contrast to both inventories of presettlement wetlands and current existing wetlands? An overarching goal of this paper was to deliver landscape planners, ecological restoration scientists, regional planners, and environmental managers and decision-makers an applied example for systematically evaluating wetland suitability across space in temperate climate zones
Wetlands provide diverse habitats and ecosystem goods and services, which are increasingly valuable under the current conditions of global change
Summary
With growing intensity and speed, the Earth is undergoing a massive environmental transformation best described as global change [1,2]. Wetlands are one of the most biodiverse land-cover types on Earth and provide many ecosystem services that help to mitigate the effects of global change, including habitat, water quality improvement, nutrient cycling, recreation, groundwater recharge, and flood and erosion reduction [17,18,19,20,21,22,23]. Wetlands have often been converted in favor of development over other well-being needs and ecological services [24,25]. Their structure and area are impacted by land-cover change as a result of dredging and filling, eutrophication, alterations to hydrology, and surface runoff [20,23,26,27]. As a result, when contrasting presettlement to 21st-century estimates, 72% (or 1.4 million hectares) of wetlands in Ontario have been eliminated by means of land-cover change, mostly to intensive agriculture [31,32]
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