A Multi-Criteria Framework for Pandemic Response Measures.

Love Ekenberg,Adriana Mihai,Nadejda Komendantova,Mats Danielson,Tobias Fasth

doi:10.3389/fpubh.2021.583706

Abstract

In managing the COVID-19 pandemic, several compelling narratives seem to have played a significant role in the decision-making processes regarding which risk mitigation and management measures to implement. Many countries were to a large extent unprepared for such a situation, even though predictions about a significant probability for a pandemic to occur existed, and national governments of several countries often acted in an uncoordinated manner, which resulted in many inconsistencies in the disaster risk reduction processes. Limited evidence has also made room for strategic narratives meant to persuade the public of the chosen set of actions, even though the degree of uncertainty regarding the outcomes of these was high, further complicating the situation. In this article, we assume a normative standpoint regarding rhapsodic decision making and suggest an integrated framework for a more elaborated decision analysis under the ambiguity of how to contain the virus spread from a policy point of view, while considering epidemiologic estimations and socioeconomic factors in a multi-stakeholder-multi-criteria context based on a co-creative work process for eliciting attitudes, perceptions, as well as preferences amongst relevant stakeholder groups. The framework, applied in our paper on Romania for demonstrative purposes, is used for evaluating mitigation measures for catastrophic events such as the COVID-19 situation, to mobilize better response strategies for future scenarios related to pandemics and other hazardous events, as well as to structure the production and analysis of narratives on the current pandemic effects.

Highlights

The recent emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic situation highlighted that many countries have to a large extent been unprepared for it [1]
We present a framework for decision analysis under ambiguity on how to treat the virus spread from a policy point of view
Since the purpose of the questionnaire was to both test the validity of the elicitation method for multi-criteria multi-stakeholder decision analyses on pandemic responses, and to obtain a sample of criteria rankings for our demonstrative evaluation, we consider the number to be sufficient, but not by any means representative at a national scale

Summary

Introduction

The recent emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic situation highlighted that many countries have to a large extent been unprepared for it [1]. Depending on the available time frame, on the level of access to different stakeholder groups as well as on external circumstances which could make collaborative workshops difficult to organize (such as strict social distancing measures), various elicitation methods can be used to obtain rankings of the criteria with various degrees of robustness.

Results

Conclusion