A multi-criteria decision-making framework for distributed generation projects investment considering the risk of electricity market trading

Abstract

Under the background of distributed generation (DG) participating in market trade, the scale of DG has developed rapidly. The investment decision of DG is actually a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problem, nevertheless the current framework rarely considers the risk of market trading. Thus a framework containing scheme attributes and market risks needs to be established. Firstly, an index system including economic benefit, environmental and social benefit and market risk is established. Secondly, subjective and objective weight are combined by using game theory in weighting process. Among them, the subjective weight of each index is determined based on the plus-minus decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory model (plus-minus DEMATEL); the objective weight is determined by the combination of triangular intuitionistic fuzzy number (TIFN) and integrated determination of objective criteria weights (IDOCRIW) model. Finally, the TODIM model is used to rank the alternatives. Taking Shanghai as a case study, the robustness of the proposed framework is verified by sensitivity analysis and comparative analysis. The results show that the weights of index C34 is 0.12, indicating that market participants have a greater influence on market risk. The research will provide an effective tool for investment decision of DG in market trading.