A multi-criteria decision analysis approach for ranking the performance of CMIP6 models in reproducing precipitation patterns over Abaya-Chamo sub-basin, Ethiopia

Abstract

The most suitable multi-model ensemble set of general circulation models is used to reduce the uncertainty associated with GCM selection and improve the accuracy of the model simulations. This study evaluated the performance of 20 global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in reproducing precipitation patterns over the Abaya-Chamo Sub-basin, Ethiopia. For the validation and selection of the models' capabilities, datasets from the Climate Hazards Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) were used after comparing them with ground observational datasets. The objective was to identify the most suitable multi-model ensemble (MME) of a subset of CMIP6 GCMs to capture the rainfall for the 1981–2014 period over the region. Climate Data Operators (CDOs) were used in climate data processing and extraction, and the Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen slope estimator methods were utilized to analyze the trends of the CMIP6 simulations. Four statistical metrics (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient, percent bias, normalized root mean square error, and Kling-Gupta efficiency) were used to further assess the performance of the models. A multi-criteria decision analysis approach, namely, the technique for order preferences by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS) method, was used to obtain the overall ranks of CMIP6 models and to select the best-performing CMIP6 model in the region. The results indicated that CHIRPS and most of the CMIP6 simulations generally reproduced bimodal precipitation patterns over the region. The CESM2-WACCM, NorESM2-MM, NorESM2-LM, and NorESM2-LM models performed better than the other models in reproducing seasonal patterns for the winter, spring, summer, and autumn seasons, respectively. On the other hand, FGOALS-f3-L revealed the trends of the reference datasets for all seasons. In terms of the NSE, PB, NRMSE, and KGE metrics, EC-Earth3-C, EC-Earth3, EC-Earth3-C, and EC-Earth-C, respectively, were considered good at representing the observed features of precipitation over the region. EC-Earth3-C,EC-Earth3, EC-Earth3-Veg-LR, ACCESS-CM2, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, and CNRM-CM6-1-HR exhibited the best performances in the Abaya-Chamo Sub-basin.