A Monte Carlo building stock model of space cooling demand in the Swiss service sector under climate change

Abstract

Recent trends in rising ambient air temperature have led to an increasing interest in modelling space cooling demand in countries that have traditionally not used cooling. In this study, a building stock model combined with Monte Carlo method was implemented and extended to estimate the current and future space cooling demand in the Swiss service sector. Building level analysis of the space cooling diffusion and cooling systems characteristics and their evolution under climate change was conducted. The results of this study show that the space cooling demand in the Swiss service sector is 900 ± 200 GWh/year in 2015 and that it will increase approximately 400% in representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6, 500% in RCP 4.5, and 600% in RCP 8.5 by 2050. During the same period, growth in space cooling saturation rate (180–200%) is the major driver of demand growth, more than increases in total service area (35%) and cooling energy intensity (30–70%). In addition, total floor area, service area, ground floor area, and building age were identified as strong predictors of probability of presence of space cooling equipment.