Abstract
The Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model is an established and appropriate approach in many countries to ascertain the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic. We wished to create a new COVID-19 model to be suitable for patients in any country. In this work, a modified SEIR model was constructed. We used the real data of COVID-19 spread in Saudi Arabia for statistical analyses and complex analyses. The reproduction number and detailed review of stability demonstrated the complexities of our proposed SEIR model. The solution and equilibrium condition were explored based on Jacobian’s linearization approach to the proposed SEIR model. The state of equilibrium was demonstrated, and a stability study was conducted in the disease-free environment. The reproduction number was measured sensitively against its internal parameters. Using the Lyapunov principle of equilibrium, the overall consistency of balance of our model was demonstrated. Findings using the SEIR model and observed outcomes due to COVID-19 spread in Saudi Arabia were compared. The modified SEIR model could enable successful analyses of the spread of epidemics such as COVID-19. An “ideal protocol” comprised essential steps to help Saudi Arabia decelerate COVID-19 spread. The most important aspects are to stay at home as much as possible and for infected people to remain in an isolated zone or secure area.
Highlights
The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is a species of Lentivirus that infects humans
By 3 March 2020, COVID-19 had spread to Saudi Arabia
To realize the ideal situation, which can help reduce the spread of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia, we must start implementing the following four main protocols and procedures: 1. Decrease the value of the transmission rate from the susceptible population to the population that is infected but which has not been detected by testing the population in the interval β ≤ 1.12 × 10−9
Summary
The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is a species of Lentivirus that infects humans. HIV infection causes acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). Until 1980, AIDS was not recognized and the link with HIV dissemination not made. After 1980, five continents were ravaged by AIDS, with >300 000 individuals diagnosed during this period.. Ebola virus disease (EVD) is a viral hemorrhagic fever of humans and other primates caused by ebolaviruses. Some researchers have postulated that it was transmitted from infected animals (e.g., bats). Due to the contact between various animals and humans, several deadly diseases can occur
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