A modified monthly degree‐day model for evaluating glacier runoff changes in China. Part II: application

Abstract

AbstractThe glacier mass balance, area change, and glacier runoff in the Yarkant River Basin (YRB) and the Beida River Basin (BRB) were estimated from 1961 to 2006 by employing a modified monthly degree‐day model. Comparisons between the simulated and observed mass balance, equilibrium line altitude, and glacier runoff suggest that the model can be used to analyze the long‐term changes of glacier mass balance and runoff in the YRB and the BRB. The glacier mass balances of the YRB and the BYB both have a significantly decreasing trend with −4.39 mm a‐1 and −8.15 mm a‐1 from 1961 to 2006 because of a significant increase in ablation caused by increasing summer air temperatures, especially since 1996. The total runoff in glacier areas has a significant increasing trend with 0.23 × 108 m3 a‐1 and 0.02 × 108 m3 a‐1 in the YRB and the BRB, respectively. By comparing the mean mass balance during the period 1961 to 1986 with that of the 1987 to 2006, the BRB glacier mass balance's sensitivity to temperature is at 0.33 m a‐1 °C, nearly twice as much as that of the YRB at 0.16 m a‐1 °C. The difference between the glacier temperature sensitivity in the YRB and the BRB is primarily because the glacier elevation band area weighted altitude of the YRB is about 700 m higher than that of BRB. The glacier elevation band area weighted summer air temperature in the YRB is around 2 °C lower than that of the BRB. Therefore, the annual positive degree‐day of the YRB and the BRB increases by about 21.0 °C and 77.3 °C respectively when the summer air temperature increases by 1 °C, resulting into more glacier ablation and runoff in the BRB than in the YRB. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.